11 key factors that can be predictive of dementia, according to a new large U.S. study

Nearly 10 Canadians aged 65 and over are diagnosed with dementia every hour, according to the latest national data. In total, there were almost 477,000 people diagnosed with dementia in the 2020-21 period, with an all-cause mortality rate 5.1 times higher than that of people without dementia. Age is the main predictor of dementia and as the population ages, the number of dementia cases is set to rise.Early detection and proactive measures could delay the onset of dementia and mitigate its effects, says a recent report by the non-profit research organization RAND, led by Michael Hurd, director of the RAND Centre for the Study of Aging in Santa Monica, Calif., Susann Rohwedder, an economist specializing in aging, and Peter Hudomiet, an economist. They say, cognitive ability, lifestyle factors and particularly physical health can predict the risk of dementia up to 20 years before the onset of symptoms.181 potential risk factorsThe report's authors used measures of cognition and dementia from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS)—a representative longitudinal survey of about 20,000 U.S. adults over 50 and their families conducted since 1992—to assess the predictive power of 181 potential risk factors, in the following categories:demographicssocioeconomic statuslabour market measureslifestyle and health behaviours, such as exercise and smokingsubjectively reported and objectively measured healthgenesparental healthcognitive abilitiespsychosocial factors such as personality traits, social activities and loneliness To investigate potential predictors of dementia several years before onset, and which predictors to use to assess the health status of the elderly, the authors used regression models to estimate the relationship between risk factors and cognitive outcomes. The first model concerns the two- and four-year incidence of dementia and cognitive impairment without dementia. The second is a long-term prediction model of the prevalence of dementia and cognitive impairment without dementia at age 80, using the characteristics of individuals at age 60. “The secondary objective is to identify modifiable risk factors that could be used in interventions to slow cognitive decline,” the authors wrote in their report.Key findings and implicationsAn individual's basic cognitive abilities, health and functional limitations are the strongest predictors of dementia.Research highlights the importance of adopting a lifestyle that promotes brain health throughout life. The economists also identified other predictive factors, such as lack of access to education or poorer quality education, after observing that people born in the southern states of the U.S. were at greater risk of developing dementia. The authors believe that it is possible to slow cognitive decline and the onset of dementia through both individual measures—getting more physical activity, even if it's only light, working longer, drinking alcohol in moderation, taking up new activities after retirement— and political measures—promoting healthy lifestyle habits, strengthening people's access to quality healthcare.The results can be used for prevalence prediction, to help plan for increased financial and care costs should the prevalence of dementia rise, and to allocate the necessary resources to high-risk categories of the population to encourage them to plan ahead.The study also shows the way for further studies on prevention, to focus research to quantify the effects of an intervention.The study can be read here: Identifying Early Predictors of Cognitive Impairment and Dementia in a Large Nationally Representative U.S. Sample

11 key factors that can be predictive of dementia, according to a new large U.S. study

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